Publié par : investorseuropegi | novembre 29, 2010

At the Close. Capitulation (part II and no comment…).


A very disappointing start of the week, from a technical point of view. It has become a very rare case now that 2 out of the last 3 trading days have seen a currency capitulation in just one direction. In the current almost historical case (when analyzed from the point of view of my extreme OB/OS readings), we have seen a new wave of very aggressive EUR/USD selling, which, in the other hand, has not led to a big raise of longs by retail traders, which I simply cannot believe, as it means most of them are making tons of money under these conditions, and I simply refuse to accept that.

The trip towards the 50% Fibo of the big 1.18-1.42 move (1.3080) may be considered by some of you as a technical move, but the speed with which the event has taken place is by no means technical or rational. The Euro accumulates aberration levels or technical failures from the low 1.32’s now, and it’s easy to see that the market is taking little care to correct that, at least for the time being. I would anyway be wary of new shorts, although most of the sites are calling for a EUR/USD destruction, and perhaps it will be them having the last laugh this time, I don’t know.

The technical ideas suggested today worked nothing as the market dictated a different rule today, i.e, it abandoned any technical rationality to become a one-way traffic jam, making it easy for the mass media to play their snake charmer’s role they long to do when something smells of a crisis or similar. Anyway I refuse to accept that these snake charmers will succeed in making of the market a non-technical environment from now on…

Before calling it a day, find below the long/short retail ratio, and you probably will shake your heads as much I do as there is something wrong there. I’m Tony Juste, thanks for watching my site on the web, sponsored by

Nov 29, 2010 17:40 GMT+0100

   1. USD/JPY
      75.89% 24.11%
   2. USD/CHF
      69.97% 30.03%
   3. XAU/USD
      68.89% 31.11%
   4. USD/CAD
      59.14% 40.86%
   5. AUD/USD
      52.93% 47.07%
   6. EUR/USD
      51.52% 48.48%
   7. GBP/USD
      46.65% 53.35%


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